The short answer: keeping weight off is hard but not hopeless, and physical activity is one of the things most consistently linked with success. The best evidence comes from people who have kept weight off for years, who tend to be very active. That evidence is observational, it describes far more activity than most people do, and walking is only one part of it. It doesn't show that walking alone, or any particular step count, prevents regain.
How common is keeping it off?
The earlier version of this page said "up to 80 percent" of people who lose weight regain it. A 2005 review in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (Wing and Phelan) put it differently. It estimated that about 20% of overweight people succeed at long-term weight loss, defined as losing at least 10% of body weight and keeping it off for at least a year. The authors stressed that the data were limited and the definitions varied, and their point was that "almost no one succeeds" is too pessimistic. So the figure is a rough estimate, and it is the same fact seen from the other side.
What successful maintainers do
The National Weight Control Registry, founded in 1993, enrols people who have lost at least 13.6 kg (30 lb) and kept it off for at least a year. In the 2005 review, members had lost an average of 33 kg and kept off at least 13.6 kg for an average of 5.7 years. The behaviours they share include eating a diet low in fat, frequent self-monitoring of weight and food, and high levels of regular physical activity. A summary of the registry reports that nearly half weigh themselves daily and about a third more weekly.
On activity, about 90% of members report exercising, roughly an hour a day on average. Their reported energy expenditure is around 2,600 to 2,800 calories a week, about 2,500 for women and 3,300 for men. An analysis by Catenacci and colleagues translated that into about 60 to 75 minutes of moderate activity such as brisk walking per day, or 35 to 45 minutes of vigorous activity. At 100 to 120 steps a minute, 60 to 75 minutes of brisk walking is roughly 6,000 to 9,000 steps, which is our arithmetic. The International Association for the Study of Obesity (2003) and the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans both suggested 60 to 90 minutes a day of moderate activity for people who have lost weight and want to keep it off.
Is it walking?
Walking is the single most commonly reported activity, but it isn't the whole story. In the 2008 analysis, 52% of members reported walking as part of their weekly activity, and most members did other activities as well as or instead of walking. Apart from walking, the activities they reported most were fairly high-intensity: resistance training, cycling, exercise machines, running and aerobics. In an accelerometer study of the registry (Catenacci, 2011), maintainers spent more time in moderate-to-vigorous activity than people who had always been normal weight, and the authors suggested structured exercise may matter. So "walking is the secret" overstates it. Walking is a common and sustainable part of it.
What this evidence can't tell us
The registry only includes people who succeeded, with self-reported activity, so it can't show how many people who exercise this much still regain, or whether the activity caused the success. It also describes high activity levels. It doesn't tell us whether 7,000 steps a day does much, and we couldn't find a trial that does. We removed the earlier page's table of step targets for maintenance (7,000 to 15,000 steps) because we couldn't source it.
Metabolism and walking
The earlier page claimed that after weight loss your body burns 200 to 300 fewer calories than expected and that walking "directly counteracts" this. How large the slowdown is, and what causes it, is disputed. In the best-known dataset, 14 contestants from The Biggest Loser (Fothergill and colleagues, 2016), resting metabolism was still about 500 calories a day below what their body composition predicted six years later, despite heavy exercise during the competition, though Hall (2022) argued the data should be read differently. Walking does add to the energy you use each day, but it doesn't reverse the slowdown. We discuss it in walking and metabolism. We also removed the claims that walking doesn't spike hunger hormones and that it acts as a "keystone habit" for other healthy behaviours. In the DREW trial, people who exercised more lost less than the arithmetic predicted, which suggests that the body offsets some of the energy spent; see does walking help you lose weight.
How we'd approach it
This part is opinion. Keep an activity habit you can sustain for years, and do as much of it as you reasonably can, since the people who keep weight off do a lot. Keep an eye on your weight regularly, which is one of the registry's most consistent findings, rather than waiting until it has crept up. Pair walking with the way you eat, since both the registry and the ACSM position stand point to diet and activity together. Streaks and a fixed time for your walk are popular ways to make it automatic, though we haven't seen trial evidence for them. How to walk 10,000 steps has practical ideas, and an hourly chart in a step counter can show whether your walks are happening. StepMax, our own free app, has one: Android, iPhone.
Sources
- Wing RR, Phelan S. Long-term weight loss maintenance. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2005;82(1 Suppl):222S-225S. ajcn.nutrition.org
- Catenacci VA, Ogden LG, Stuht J, Phelan S, Wing RR, Hill JO, Wyatt HR. Physical activity patterns in the National Weight Control Registry. Obesity. 2008;16(1):153-161. PubMed
- Catenacci VA, Grunwald GK, Ingebrigtsen JP, et al. Physical activity patterns using accelerometry in the National Weight Control Registry. Obesity. 2011;19(6):1163-1170. wiley.com
- Fothergill E, Guo J, Howard L, et al. Persistent metabolic adaptation 6 years after "The Biggest Loser" competition. Obesity. 2016;24(8):1612-1619. wiley.com
- Hall KD. Energy compensation and metabolic adaptation: "The Biggest Loser" study reinterpreted. Obesity. 2022. wiley.com
- Donnelly JE, Blair SN, Jakicic JM, et al. American College of Sports Medicine position stand. Appropriate physical activity intervention strategies for weight loss and prevention of weight regain for adults. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise. 2009;41(2):459-471. doi
- Church TS, Martin CK, Thompson AM, Earnest CP, Mikus CR, Blair SN. Changes in weight, waist circumference and compensatory responses with different doses of exercise among sedentary, overweight postmenopausal women. PLoS ONE. 2009;4(2):e4515. PubMed
Correction note: an earlier version of this page said up to 80 percent of people regain lost weight, that walking is the one habit that separates maintainers from those who regain, that registry members average 60 to 90 minutes of mostly walking, that after weight loss the body burns 200 to 300 fewer calories and walking directly counteracts that, that walking doesn't spike hunger hormones and is a keystone habit, and gave a table of 7,000 to 15,000 daily steps for maintenance. We could not support those, so they were removed or corrected. We checked the figures above against published abstracts and summaries on October 2, 2026; the registry activity figures are as summarised in later reviews and book excerpts, and we did not read the Catenacci papers in full. This article is for informational purposes and does not replace medical advice. This is general information, not medical advice.